Tag Archives: Risk adjustment

Obamacare Stability Rests On Shaky Risk Adjustment

Set forth below are brief excerpts from my recent blog entry on Risk Adjustment under the Affordable Care Act that has been posted on Forbes The Apothecary.  To read the rest, you’ll need to go to that site.

What’s interesting, though, is what happened at almost exactly the same time as I released my Forbes blog entry.  New CMS Administrator Andrew Slavitt, whom I noted in the article had actually expressed concern about Risk Adjustment,  told Inside Health Policy, an outstanding trade publication, that some changes to the risk adjustment methodology in the draft Notice of Benefit and Payment Parameters for 2017 may instead be implemented in the 2016 plan year. CMS’ proposal calls for the 2017 risk adjustment to use a blended rate from earlier years and account for patient use of preventative services. I know that may not be the sexiest announcement ever made, but it’s important.  I’m not going to pretend that my blog entry motivated Mr. Slavitt to start looking hard at CMS methodology — although he would be well educated if he started each day with The Apothecary.  But, along with his recent actions taken to reduce the ability of insureds to game the Special Enrollment Period, Administrator Slavitt’s critical attention to Risk Adjustment suggest a willingness to take a fresh look at Obamacare implementation failings. 

The Affordable Care Act originally appeared to promise a choice of plans on the Exchanges across at least two spectra: the amount of cost sharing an insured would have to assume and the degree of choice the individual would have in selecting their healthcare providers.  Although this ability to customize both choice and “metal tier” was generally considered a feature of Obamacare, it has turned out to pose significant issues.  And here’s why: plans with the greatest degree of choice (PPOs) and the lowest amount of cost sharing (mostly Platinum) are magnets for the unhealthy.  So, unless there’s something to neutralize the extra costs to the insurer created by this “magnetic attraction” or unless insurers can simply decline to offer plans with high choice or low cost sharing, the freedom to select a plan in fact becomes destructive.

The choice touted by proponents of Obamacare induces a weakened form of an adverse selection death spiral. The whole system may not immediately collapse, but the system’s physics becomes highly unstable. The plans most attractive to the unhealthy become unavailable. The unavailability occurs either because insurers can’t persuade regulators to let them charge the high rates needed to break even or because all but the sickest insured’s won’t buy them at such a price. The most expensive 20% of individual insureds, after all, cost on average more than 60 times as much per person as the least expensive 50%. The Platinum refugees then migrate to the second most attractive plans —  in our case often Gold or Silver. (Remember Silver plans have low cost sharing for poor families). But then these plans become disproportionately populated by the sick and can also become considerably more expensive.  If there is a point of stability, it is likely to be one in which there is far less choice of physician and far more cost sharing than originally contemplated.  Most people might end up in a Bronze HMO.

The stability of Obamacare likely rests significantly on the arcane and challenging technology of  Risk Adjustment.  Run it poorly in ways insurers can game and look for the market to fall into a Bronze HMO basin of attraction or collapse altogether.  Run it without the strictest safeguards for medical privacy and see a mass rebellion from insureds. Obamacare would have a better chance at stability with a diversity of plans if Risk Adjustment worked considerably better than has so far been the case.

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No, New York Times, “guesswork” is not the reason ACA premiums are rising

The New York Times, whose editorial board has long been a strong supporter of the Affordable Care Act, published an article on its front page yesterday in which the headline read, “Seeking Rate Increases, Insurers Use Guesswork.” And, lest there be much doubt that the article suggested that speculation — the sort that regulators might understandably reject as a basis for premium hikes — rather than hard facts were leading to the frightening premium hikes, here are some quotes selected by author Reed Abelson for publication:

“But many insurers, including those seeking relatively hefty increases below 10 percent, say they are asking for higher premiums because they remain unsure about the future and what their medical costs will be.”

“It’s the year of actuarial uncertainty, and actuaries are conservative,” said Dr. Martin Hickey, chairman of the National Alliance of State Health CO-OPs and the chief executive of the New Mexico exchange. “The safest thing to do is to raise rates.”

Yes, to be sure, there was the suggestion in other parts of the article that higher than expected claims were part of the problem, but both the headline and remaining comments suggest that the high rates of increase were the result of unsupported speculation.

Wrong, New York Times! If you actually read the justifications for the premium increases submitted by insurers and their accompanying actuarial memoranda, you can see there are two dominant themes: (1) higher than expected claims expenses and (2) diminution of federal subsidies to the insurance industry.  You can also see lengthy memoranda containing facts and figures explaining their experience last year and the basis for their trending those experiences into the future. And, while one need not invariably take the insurance industry at its word or at face value, this is an instance where they have to make the best case possible for their rate increases. Regulators will scrutinize insurers’ work. Misstatements or rank guessing would seem to be against the insurance industry’s interest.

So instead of quoting people, who might themselves be guessing, let’s look at what the insurers actually said. I am going to bore you with 17 representative filings from across the nation. I do so because I want to make clear that the evidence is overwhelming. Most of these are contained in or accompanied by lengthy memoranda containing elaborate tables justifying the increases. I’ve attempted to be diverse in my selection of insurers to avoid repetition of, for example, the Blue Cross position or the Aetna position.

1. Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Alabama

BCBSAL proposes an average 28% increase to rates for the products offered in 2015. The main drivers of the need for a rate increase are as follows:

• Single risk pool experience which is significantly more adverse than that assumed in current rates

• Medical inflation and increased utilization as indicated in Section 5: Projection Factors

• Expected increases in the average population morbidity of the Individual Market, also described in Section 5: Projection Factors

• Reinsurance program changes, described in Section 9: Risk Adjustment and Reinsurance

BCBSAL determined that the following items did not contribute significantly to the need for a rate increase:

• Taxes and fees: Minimal changes in the amount needed for taxes and fees, described in Section 10: Non-benefit Expenses and Profit & Risk

• Benefit changes: No changes to offered benefits for 2016

2. HealthNet of Arizona

The projected claims experience was developed using calendar year non-grandfathered 2014 experience. If our rate request is approved, the expected premium for the entire risk pool is $313.91 PMPM. This represents an increase of 24.7% in average premium. 2014 premiums received were $127,867,744. Claims paid were $171,764,569. Since 2014 medical costs are increasing with an annual trend of 5.5%. Prescription drug costs are increasing with an annual trend of 10.3%. Claims costs are 85.1% of premium. Administrative costs are 14.5% of premium. Profit is -4.8% of premium.

3. Cigna Health and Life Insurance Company (Connecticut)

The most significant factors requiring the rate increase are:

Changes in Medical Service Costs: The increasing cost of medical services accounts for the majority of the premium rate increases. Cigna anticipates that the cost of medical services in 2016 will increase over the 2015 level because of prices charged by doctors and hospitals and more frequent use of medical services by customers.

Transitional Reinsurance Program Changes: The federally mandated transitional reinsurance program is in effect for three years (2104, 2015, and 2016). The amount of funding available to issuers under the reinsurance program to offset adverse claim experience decreases each year ($10B in 2014, $6B in 2015, and $4B in 2016). Additional premium is required to compensate for the reduced reinsurance support in 2016.

Morbidity (Risk Pool) Adjustments: The marketplace for non-grandfathered individual plans is affected by provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (the Affordable Care Act) that became effective in 2014, including:
guarantee issue and renewal requirements
modified community-rating requirement
federal premium subsidies for low and moderate income individuals.

The effects of these 2014 changes when coupled with previous regulatory changes and overall utilization experienced in 2014 suggest that it is appropriate to increase the overall claim level assumption reflected in the premiums for individual plans in Connecticut.

4. Aetna Health, Inc. (Florida)

Why We Need to Increase Premiums
Medical costs are going up and we are changing our rates to reflect this increase. We expect medical costs to go up 10%. Medical costs go up mainly for two reasons – providers raise their prices and members get more medical care.
For policies issued to individuals in Florida, some examples of increasing medical costs we have experienced in the last 12 months include:
· The cost for an inpatient hospital admission has increased 8.0%.
· The average cost for outpatient has increased 8.4%.
· Costs for pharmacy prescriptions have gone up 8.0%.
· The use of outpatient hospital services has increased 4.5%.

What Else Affects Our Request to Increase Premiums
Several requirements related to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) impact these rates. These include:
· “Keep What you Have” and its impact on the population that will enroll in the plans covered by this filing
· Enhanced network access standards – which limit our ability to control the cost and quality of medical care
· Changes to required taxes and fees
· Phase-out of the Transitional Reinsurance Program which increases rates for plans issued to individuals

5. Humana Employers Health Plan of Georgia, Inc. (Georgia)

Many factors influence this rate calculation. The primary factors include
‐ Population health‐ Expected changes in the aggregate health level of all individuals insured by all carriers in the individual health insurance market.
‐ Claims cost trend‐ Changes in expected claims costs associated with changes in the unit cost of medical services, changes in Humana’s contracts with hospitals, physicians, and other health care providers, and the increase or decrease in utilization of medical services including changes in the severity and mix of services used.
‐ Plan Changes‐ Changes to plan designs due to changes in federal requirements.

6. Wellmark Health Plan of Iowa, Inc. (Iowa)

Reason for Rate Increases The effective average rate increase for these products is 28.7%, varying by plan as listed in the table above. The primary drivers of the proposed rate increases include, but are not limited to:

• Adverse Experience/Risk Adjustment Transfer: The risk of the market is more adverse than what we had assumed in the current rates; which leads to a significant projected risk adjustment transfer payment to other carriers.

• Medical and Drug Inflation: Both increased utilization and increased cost per service/script contribute to projected claims trend.

• Phase out of Federal Transitional Reinsurance Program: As this program phases out over three years, the expected receivables from this program are smaller for 2016 than they were for 2015.

7. CareFirst of Maryland (Maryland)

The main driver of the financial performance of these products and the proposed rate increase is the very significant increase in average morbidity between 2013 (the pre-ACA pool which underwent underwriting) and 2014 (the post-ACA guarantee-issue pool). The allowed claims per member per month (PMPM) increased from $197 in 2013 to $391 in 2014, a much higher and faster increase than anticipated.

8. HealthPlus Insurance Company

The biggest driver of rate change is 2014 claims experience that is more adverse than assumed in current rates. Another driver is due to the lower Federal reinsurance recoveries.

9. Coventry Health & Life Insurance (Missouri)

Why We Need to Increase Premiums
Medical costs are going up and we are changing our rates to reflect this increase. We expect medical costs to go up 9.4%. Medical costs go up mainly for two reasons – providers raise their prices and members get more medical care.

What Else Affects Our Request to Increase Premiums
We offer individuals in Missouri a variety of plans to choose from. We are changing some benefits for these plans to comply with state and federal requirements.
Several requirements related to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) may also impact these rates. These include:
• Changes to our expected projected average population morbidity and its relationship to the projected market average for risk adjustment.
• Changes to required taxes and fees
• Phase-out of the Transitional Reinsurance Program which increases rates for plans issued to individuals

10. Aetna Health Inc. (Nevada)

Why We Need to Increase Premiums
Medical costs are going up and we are changing our rates to reflect this increase. We expect medical costs to go up 10.6%, excluding the effect of benefit changes described below. Medical costs go up mainly for two reasons – providers raise their prices and members get more medical care.

For Individuals in Nevada, some examples of increasing medical costs we have experienced in the last 12 months include:
• Primary Care Physician visits have increased by 124.2%.
• Inpatient bed days have increased by 51.0%.
• Expenses for emergency treatment have increased 22.7%.

What Else Affects Our Request to Increase Premiums
A prominent hospital system in Nevada moved from participating to non-participating in 2014 and is expected to stay that way into 2016. This has an adverse impact on claims costs since the more favorable lower-cost in-network reimbursement rates no longer apply.

Several requirements related to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) also impact these rates. These include:
• Enhanced network access standards – which limit our ability to control the cost and quality of medical care
• Changes to required taxes and fees
• Phase-out of the Transitional Reinsurance Program which increases rates for plans issued to individuals

11. Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Mexico (New Mexico)

[E]arned premiums for all non-grandfathered Individual plans during calendar year 2014 were $84,497,659, and total claims incurred were $105,605,811.

After application of the ACA federal risk mitigation provisions, the total BCBSNM Individual non-grandfathered block of business experienced a financial loss of 17% of premium in 2014.

The proposed rates effective January 1, 2016, are expected to achieve the loss ratio assumed in the rate development.

Changes in Medical Service Costs:

The main driver of the increase in the proposed rates is that the actual claims experience of the members in these Individual ACA metallic policies is significantly higher than expected. After application of the ACA federal risk mitigation provisions, the total BCBSNM ACA block of business experienced a loss of 19% of premium in 2014.

12. Medical Mutual of Ohio (Ohio)

Medical Mutual of Ohio is proposing an overall rate increase of 16.9% for plans effective January 1, 2016. This increase will potentially impact the 37,673 existing MMO members. The rate change ranges from 7.4% to 26.0%, varying by plan, age, change in tobacco user status, change in family composition, and the geographic area where the member resides.
The experience of MMO Individual ACA plans was not favorable in 2014. MMO has paid nearly $167 million claims and only received $114 million in premium. In 2014, MMO lost about $42 million dollars on its individual ACA business alone. With the rate increase implemented for 2015 and proposed for 2016, MMO’s experience is expected to improve, becoming profitable in 2016.
The following items are the main drivers for the proposed rate increase:
1. The transitional reinsurance recovery decreased from the 2015 level and will have a smaller impact offsetting the total claims.
2. The increase in the medical and drug cost is about 6.2% annually. Out of that increase, 40% is due to the change in unit cost, 31% is due to the change in utilization and the rest is due to the change in the mixture of services.
3. We expected the morbidity and demographics to improve in 2016 due to increased penalty of non-compliance, a greater understanding of the ACA law, and a reduction in the amount of pent-up demand for services. This alleviates the rate increase needed based on the experience.
4. There’s no changes in benefit from 2015 to 2016.
5. The administrative cost and commission will decrease $2.51 per member per month. The profit and risk will increase $7.92 per member per month. The taxes and fees will increase $4.51 per member per month.

13. Geisinger Quality Options (Pennsylvania)

Geisinger Quality Options has proposed an overall base rate increase of 58.36% for Individual PPO members renewing in the Marketplace effective January 1, 2016 through December 1, 2016. The overall increase is largely due to the claims experience in ACA compliant individual market plans being much higher than what was assumed in current rates. Other contributing factors include annual claims trend, federally-prescribed ACA fees and reduced benefits in the Transitional Reinsurance Program.

14. Pacific Source Health Plans (Oregon)

This filing requests an aggregate increase of 42.7 percent over the rates approved in our 2015 Oregon Individual filing. The proposed rates are based on PacificSource’s historical Oregon Individual claims experience adjusted for PacificSource’s historical average risk compared to the market average risk, anticipated medical and pharmacy claims trend, expected change in market morbidity from 2014 experience period to 2016 projection period, changes in benefits, and expected state and federal reinsurance recoveries. The proposed rates also reflect changes in the taxes and fees imposed on health insurers for 2016. The range of rate increases is 23.4 percent to 60.4 percent and impacts PacificSource’s 8,216 Oregon Individual members. The variation in rate increases is driven by some changes in benefits i.e. copays, deductibles, OOP max, as well as adjustments to geographic area factors. The overall average impact of benefit changes on the requested rate increase is 0.0 percent.

The increase in rates from 2015 to 2016 is primarily driven by a dramatic worsening of claims experience in 2014 as compared to 2013, and the reduction of expected reinsurance recoveries in 2016. Note that this is the first rate filing where a full year of post ACA experience data was available. This data shows that the overall increase in morbidity from PacificSource pre ACA experience to post ACA market experience is much greater than originally projected in our 2014 and 2015 rate filings. The combined medical and pharmacy annual trend used in this filing is 7.0 percent, which reflects expected changes in costs, changes in utilization, and the impact of leveraging. The primary driver of the annual trend assumption is specialty drug cost and utilization, particularly Hepatitis C drugs. Administrative expenses and margin are budgeted to decline compared to the 2015 rate filing.

Over the calendar year 2014, the Oregon Individual block earned 30.2 million in premium and incurred an estimated 50.0 million in claims, for a raw medical loss ratio of 165.2 percent. Premium and claims expenses are shown before the impact of reinsurance, risk adjustment, and risk corridor. At this time we do not expect risk corridor payments to be made to issuers. After expected risk adjustment and state and federal reinsurance recoveries, we estimate a 2014 loss ratio of 116.5 percent. Combined administrative expenses, commissions, taxes, and assessments were approximately 24.6 percent of premium.

15. Scott & White Health Plan (Texas)

The Scott & White Health Plan is requesting an average rate increase of 32.3% to the Individual HMO Rating Pool. There are 24,294 covered individuals as of January 2015. 10.0% of the 32.3% increase is due to health care cost inflation, 14.3% of the increase pertains to changes in Risk Adjustment and Reinsurance assumptions, 2.7% is due to changes in fees, and the remaining 5.3% is due to actual and expected unfavorable experience.

16. Optima Health Plan (Virginia)

The rate increase is the same for all members in the same plan. Where the 2016 plan is different than the 2015 plan these members will be automatically enrolled into the 2016 plan shown. Premium rates are effective January 1 2016.
Claims expenses were very high in 2014 relative to earned premium. However payments from the federal transitional reinsurance and risk adjustment programs are expected to help significantly.
The federal reinsurance program is only temporary and while it is continuing into 2016 the amount of reinsurance per claim is less than in 2014 and 2015. As such premium rates will be increased to account for this impact. Additionally the risk adjustment program alone does not appear to provide sufficient relief to enable the Company to meet its pricing targets.
It is anticipated that 2014 had some amount of higher claims due to new members having pent-up demand for services and less healthy people tending to be the first to sign-up for ACA-compliant plans given the new rating and underwriting rules. Because of this we do not assume that 2016 will necessarily be as high a claim level as seen in 2014 but some of what has been experienced will remain.
These reductions from 2014 levels will be countered by upward pressure on costs from other sources such as medical trend as described below.
The proposed rate increase is intended to account for expected claims activity in 2016 given historical experience and changes in morbidity as well as any expected assistance from the federal reinsurance and risk adjustment programs. With the proposed rate increase the anticipated loss ratio is 80 percent.
Medical trend for these products is anticipated to be an average of 7 percent per year on paid claims for example after member cost sharing or a total of 14.5 percent over the period from 2014 to 2016. This was developed based on historical experience as well as consideration for information available on general medical inflation trends. Medical trend includes a combination of utilization and costs of services. This increase in cost is included in the calculation of the rate increase.

17. Security HealthPlan of Wisconsin (Wisconsin)

The biggest driver of the rate change is SHP’s underlying claims experience used in developing the projected index rate. We used SHP’s 2014 individual non-grandfathered, ACA allowed claims as the basis for claim development. The 2014 claims and membership distributions indicate experience is worse than we priced for in 2015 rates. Further, based on a Wisconsin risk score analysis conducted by Milliman, we are projecting no risk adjustment transfer payment. This assumption of no payment results in higher rates in 2016 since we had projected SHP would receive money from the risk adjustment pool when developing the 2015 rates.

Another driver of the rate change is due to the lower federal transitional reinsurance recoveries in 2016. The recoveries assume in 2016 SHP will receive 50% of all SHP’s individual members’ per member per year incurred claims between $90,000 and $250,000. In 2015, rates were priced assuming recoveries to be 50% of claims between $70,000 and $250,000 based on the federal parameters in place at the time of pricing.

The projection of claims from the experience period to the effective period assumes 5.0% annual medical and drug trend. These trends were estimated based on data from SHP, conversations with SHP senior management, Milliman research, general industry knowledge, and our judgment of recent trends.

Conclusion

So, does this sound like “guesswork” to you?  It does not to me.  All of these insurers are lying or mistaken about what is causing their requests for premium hikes? I don’t think so.  Of course, there is “trending” in which insurers approximate how previous increases will continue to the future and this requires some art on the part of insurers.  Of course, insurers may want to present their requests for rate hikes in a way more likely to be approved. But what they have presented is no more “guesswork” here than the work of any insurer in setting rates for almost any form of insurance. It is the sort of actuarial projections that are generally approved by regulators.

Health insurers now have a decent feel what it is going to cost them to participate in Obamacare.  And these insurers have a pretty common perspective: the whopping increase are driven by  greater utilization than expected among those electing coverage  (adverse selection and moral hazard), increases in the cost of medicine, and reduction of federal subsidies.

Exactly what some people predicted.

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Proposed cuts in transitional reinsurance could increase Exchange premiums 7-8% in 2015

Late last week, HHS released its 255-page HHS Notice of Benefit and Payment Parameters for 2015. Buried away in this technical documents are at least two interesting matters.

  1. HHS is planning to cut reinsurance payments to insurers participating in its Exchanges in a way that, in and of itself, could increase gross premiums 7-8% in 2015 and increase the risk of further adverse selection
  2. HHS has validated the claims of insurers that President Obama’s recent about-face on the ability of insurers to renew certain policies not providing Essential Health Benefits could destabilize the insurance market.  The Notice proposes changing the way insurers calculate their profits and losses so that the amount of payments made by government to insurers in the Exchange would increase. It claims, however, that it does not know how much this will cost.
The HHS Notice for 2015
The HHS Notice for 2015

Less reinsurance

Under the system in place for 2014, if insurers in an Exchange have to pay between $45,000 and $250,000 on one of their insureds, the government picks up 80% of that loss (assuming the $63 per insured life it taxes various other health insurance plans is sufficient to pay that amount). But in 2015, the money that goes into this transitional reinsurance pool (section 1341 of the ACA, 42 U.S.C. sec. 18061) declines by a third from $12 billion to $8 billion and the head tax correspondingly declines from $63 to $44. As a result, HHS proposes to now pick up only 50% of the tab for losses between $70,000 and $250,000. Thus, losses between $45,000 and the new $70,000 attachment point will now fall entirely on insurers without federal help and insurers will have to pay 30% more on losses between $70,000 and $250,000.

This reduction in free reinsurance provided by the taxpayers will almost certainly result in increased premiums for insureds. My estimate is that the average premium hike induced by this reduction in reinsurance is likely to be about 7-8%.

Here’s how I did this computation. I took loss distributions contained in the government’s “Actuarial Value Calculator.” That’s the Excel spreadsheet the government (and insurers) use to figure out what metal tier, if any, their policy falls into. I then performed the following steps.  You can verify what I have done in the Computable Document Format (CDF) document I have placed on Dropbox. You can view the document using the free CDF player or using Mathematica

Step 1.  I determined the expected value of claims under those loss distributions with reinsurance parameters set at the 2014 rates.  I get four results, one for each metal tier: {3630.52, 4223.87, 4468.95, 5556.06}. I then do exactly the same computation but use the 2015 reinsurance parameters. I get four results, one for each metal tier: {3906.67, 4550.95, 4807.06, 5948.53}.

Step 2. I multiply each result by the actuarial value of the associated metal tier to approximate the size of the premium needed to support the expected level of the claims. I get {2178.31, 2956.71, 3575.16, 5000.46} for the 2014 reinsurance parameters and {2344., 3185.67, 3845.65, 5353.68} for the 2015 reinsurance parameters.

Step 3. I then simply compute the percent increase in the needed 2015 premiums over the needed 2014 premiums and get {0.0760631, 0.077436, 0.0756584, 0.0706371}

If losses are, as I suspect they will be, greater than those assumed in the actuarial value calculator — because the pool is going to be drawn for a variety of reasons from a riskier group than originally anticipated —  the diminution in reinsurance is yet more significant and, standing by itself, could add more than 7-8% to the gross premiums charged in the Exchanges.

Whether the increase in gross premiums is about 7-8% or whether it is higher, it creates a heightened risk for an adverse selection problem.  This is so because, although subsidies insulate many people in the Exchanges from increases in gross premiums — net premiums are pegged to income rather than gross premiums for them — it will affect the significant number (estimated by HHS to be about 18% (4/22)) who are expected to purchase policies inside the Exchanges without subsidies.  The higher premiums go, however, the more we would expect to see the healthy drop out and find substitutes for the non-underwritten policies sold in the Exchanges. (If premiums are low enough, adverse selection is not a problem: insurance is a good deal for everyone and healthy and sick purchase it alike. See, e.g., Medicare Part B, which is very heavily subsidized and does not suffer seriously from adverse selection.)

Note to experts. Some of you might think I erred in saying that the 2014 reinsurance attachment point is $45,000 and not $60,000. But the 2015 notice says on page 11 that it will retroactively reduce the attachment point to $45,000.

HHS Validates Insurer Fears About Obama Reversal and the Destabilization of Insurance Markets

Many individuals, including me, have claimed that President Obama’s recent decision to permit insurers to “uncancel” certain individual plans that do not contain Essential Health Benefits could destabilize insurance markets. The Notice of Benefit and Payment Parameters just released appears to validate that assertion. Stripped of bureaucratese, the HHS document basically says that insurers are right to be disconcerted by the President’s about face.

For those who enjoy bureaucratese, however, or who properly want to validate my own conclusions about the document, here’s what it actually says.

On November 14, 2013, the Federal government announced a policy under which it will not consider certain non-grandfathered health insurance coverage in the individual or small group market renewed between January 1, 2014, and October 1, 2014, under certain conditions to be out of compliance with specified 2014 market rules, and requested that States adopt a similar non-enforcement policy.

Issuers have set their 2014 premiums for individual and small group market plans by estimating the health risk of enrollees across all of their plans in the respective markets, in accordance with the single risk pool requirement at 45 CFR 156.80. These estimates assumed that individuals currently enrolled in the transitional plans described above would participate in the single risk pools applicable to all non-grandfathered individual and small group plans, respectively (or a merged risk pool, if required by the State). Individuals who elect to continue coverage in a transitional plan (forgoing premium tax credits and cost-sharing reductions that might be available through an Exchange plan, and the essential health benefits package offered by plans compliant with the 2014 market rules, and perhaps taking advantage of the underwritten premiums offered by the transitional plan) may have lower health risk, on average, than enrollees in individual and small group plans subject to the 2014 market rules.

If lower health risk individuals remain in a separate risk pool, the transitional policy could increase an issuer’s average expected claims cost for plans that comply with the 2014 market rules. Because issuers would have set premiums for QHPs in accordance with 45 CFR 156.80 based on a risk pool assumed to include the potentially lower health risk individuals that enroll in the transitional plans, an increase in expected claims costs could lead to unexpected losses.

So, the government wants help in figuring out what to do. One method it is contemplating involves technical adjustments to the Risk Corridors program in a way that would get insurers more money (pp. 101-105).  Although I will confess to considerable difficulty in understanding exactly what it is that HHS suggesting, the basic idea, as I understand it, would be to assume that those who, by virtue of the President’s about face, “uncancel” their policies would have had claims expenses equal to 80% of the average claims of the rest of the pool (page 103-04). HHS will then, on a state-by-state basis figure out what the position of the insurer would have been and try to adjust Risk Corridors such that the position of the insured after application of adjusted Risk Corridors is similar to that which it would have been in had these persons, who pay the same premium as the rest but who tend to have only 80% of the claims expenditures, enrolled in their plan.

It is not clear to me where the statutory authority to make this change comes from. Section 1342 of the ACA (42 U.S.C. 18062) does not define its key terms of “target amount” and “allowable costs” in a fashion that would appear to my eye to extend to hypothetical costs and hypothetical premiums. I will also confess to being unsure as to who would have standing to challenge this proposed give away of taxpayer money to the insurance industry.

What is clear to me, however, is the proposed reform, by necessity, will result in greater previously unbudgeted expenditures by the federal government. If we are really talking about making insurers whole and the people in question might have profited insurers something like $1,000 a person, the federal government appears to be suggesting a change in regulations that could cost it hundreds of millions of dollars.  The HHS Notice declines to put an exact figure on the cost of the change:

Because of the difficulty associated with predicting State enforcement of 2014 market rules and estimating the enrollment in transitional plans and in QHPs, we cannot estimate the magnitude of this impact on aggregate risk corridors payments and charges at this time.

HHS is probably correct in saying it is difficult to estimate the cost of the proposed changes to Risk Corridors.  I don’t think we have a good feel for how many people will return to the plans President Obama has carved out for special treatment.  It does look, however, as if a floor of a couple of hundred million dollars on the cost of the proposal would be quite reasonable. This, of course, could give some ammunition to those, such as Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who have called for repeal of the Risk Corridors provision as an insurance “bailout.” (For a discussion, look here, here and here)

Final Note

Yesterday, I said I hoped to provide a major post.  This actually is not the post I was speaking about. There’s still more news coming.  Maybe today or maybe while recovering from a turkey overdose tomorrow.

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Can its reinsurance and risk adjustment provisions salvage the Affordable Care Act?

The Problem

Let us suppose, for the moment, that enrollment in the Exchanges increases as healthcare.gov becomes less dysfunctional and as we get closer to the January 1, 2014 and March 1, 2014 deadlines. It is, after all, unrealistic to think that enrollment will remain at the pathetic/paltry/miserable levels recounted by today’s testimony from Kathleen Sebelius,  notwithstanding her counting of people who merely put a plan in their shopping cart.  But it does seem likely to many , including me, that

  1. sticker shock,
  2. the small and difficult-to-enforce penalties for 2014,
  3. President Obama’s decision to let insurers “uncancel” ungrandfatherable policies and let some of those insureds stay out the Exchanges,
  4. the website debacle, and
  5. whatever short-sightedness or financial liquidity issues led to most of even the sickest uninsured Americans not enrolling in the Pre-existing Condition Insurance Plan

will likewise lead the enrollment in the Exchanges to be considerably smaller than projected. This is particularly likely to remain true, I believe, in states such as Texas in which institutional forces and political culture often do not encourage participation and in which fewer than 3,000 out the estimated 3,000,000 eligible to do so have enrolled thus far.

The key question is how resilient are the Exchanges to low enrollments in which, one would expect, the enrollees are — even more than they were projected to be — disproportionately older and disproportionately less healthy. And have the Exchanges been rendered yet more fragile by what many cheered as the surprisingly low premiums charged by many insurers? Could those insurers, who are likely to swoop up most of the business in a price sensitive market, in fact be about to face the winners curse? The answer to these questions may lie deep in the details of one of the least studied and yet one of the most important set of provisions in the Affordable Care Act: the reinsurance and risk adjustment provisions contained in sections 1341-1343 of that Act and now codified at 42 U.S.C. §§ 18061-18063.

Here’s the (long) paragraph-length explanation of how these reinsurance and risk adjustment provisions work. 42 U.S.C. § 18061 basically creates a transitional (2014-16) government operated stop-loss reinsurance program funded out of a special tax on other health plans ($63 per covered life). The reinsurance attaches when a person covered by a plan in an Exchange incurs $60,000 or more in claims per year.  After that point, the reinsurer pays for 80% of the claims up to a cap of $250,000.  Thus, if an individual had claims of $180,000 in a year, the government would reimburse the insurer for $96,000, which is 80% of the difference between $180,000 and $60,000. What this provision appears to do is make insurer profit and loss less sensitive to attracting high claims insureds. 42 U.S.C. § 18062 basically redistributes money in a complex way from insurers whose Exchange plans profit to insurers whose Exchange plans lose money. Again, the idea is to reduce the insurer anxiety either that their plan and their marketing (if any) happens to attract an unhealthy pool or that they selected a premium too low for the actual risk that materializes.  Finally, 42 U.S.C. § 18063, the only program that is supposed to persist past 2016, imagines an incredibly complex system in which the risk posed by an insurer’s pool is assessed and the states or, in their default, the federal government (see 42 U.S.C. 18041(c)(1)(B)(ii)(II)), transfers at least some money from those with the riskiest pools to those with the least.

Will these provisions really rescue the insurers?

All of this might seem a comfort to insurers that might permit them to survive and continue in the Exchanges even if the pools are, on average, considerably more expensive than originally projected. But to get a better handle on the degree of solace these provisions might provide, we need to look at some of the limitations of these programs and the actual numbers.

Stop-loss reinsurance under 42 U.S.C.  § 18061

First, let’s look at how much risk the transitional reinsurance provided by 42 U.S.C. § 18061 really slurps up. What I contend is that while this provision should — and probably did — lower the premiums the insurer would otherwise need to charge to avoid losing money, it does less to rescue insurers if the pool is less healthy than they foresaw.  While to really see this, we need to get deep into the weeds and do some math, I’m going to hold off on that fun for now. We have to save some things, such as the Actuarial Value Calculator, for other blog entries. I believe I have developed a plain English explanation that gets us most of the way there.

The key concept is to recognize that sophisticated insurers (are there other kinds?) took the free reinsurance into account when they priced their policies.  They computed an expected value of the reinsurance reimbursements and lowered their rates by something approximating that amount. They were able to charge lower rates than they otherwise would because some of the claims bill would be picked up by the government. But this does not mean that the insurers end up having profits that are insensitive to the actual claims incurred by their pool.  Unless all of the higher-than-expected claims are stuffed into the zone in which the reinsurance kicks in ($60,000 to $250,000), the insurers will be hurt when the pool has higher claims than expected.  But such an assumption is incredibly implausible.  If the insurer assumed that only, say, 2% of its insureds would have claims between $20,000 and $25,000 but, as it turns out, 4% of its insureds have such claims, nothing in 42 U.S.C. § 18061 will help such an insurer with that unanticipated loss. Moreover, because the reinsurance even within the relevant zone is incomplete, the insurer will lose money if claims between $60,000 and $250,000 are higher than expected.  The effect of the transitional stop-loss reinsurance on reducing the consequences of adverse selection is thus likely to be small.

In the end, what this transitional reinsurance mostly does is mostly to tax non-Exchange policies $63 per covered life in order to make policies within the Exchange more attractive to policyholders.  And, yes, that fact should make Exchange-based policies cheaper and reduce the problem of adverse selection.  After all, if the insurance were free presumably there would be little adverse selection — everyone would get it. But the reinsurance fails to reduce insurer vulnerability to adverse selection much more than, say, providing more generous tax credits and cost sharing reductions would have done. If the pool ends up being less healthy than the insurer anticipated — an almost certain consequence of lower-than-expected enrollments, 42 U.S.C. § 18061 is hardly going to end up relieving the insurer of most of the unhappy consequences of having written policies in that environment.

Footnote: There is one more wrinkle, but it only means that the transitional reinsurance is a yet weaker rescue vehicle: the government’s obligations under the transitional reinsurance provisions are limited.  There’s “only” $12 billion in 2014 and this ramps down to $4 billion in 2015.  If those amounts aren’t adequate to pay reinsurance claims, each claim gets reduced pro rata.  The reason I relegate this point to a “footnote,” however, is that if the pools are really small then even if claims per person are way higher than expected, the aggregate amount of claims in the reinsured zone of $60,000 to $250,000 aren’t going to be that big. My back-of-the-envelope computation suggests that the $12 billion allocated for transitional reinsurance should not be insufficient unless at least 2 million people enroll on the exchanges; since right now we are almost certainly at less than 100,000, 2 million seems a lot of insureds away.

“Risk Corridors” under 42 U.S.C. § 18062

The biggie in this field is the “Risk Corridors” provisions contained in 42 U.S.C. § 18062. It essentially creates this massive transfer scheme, taking money from insurers who had profitable pools and giving it to those who did not.  In some sense, it converts insurers from entities bearing risk to mere fronts for government funded health insurance.  If I were prone to accuse the Affordable Care Act of creating “socialized medicine,”  my Exhibit A would be the stealth “Risk Corridors” provision of 42 U.S.C. § 18062.

The graphic below shows how the scheme works. The x-axis of the graph shows hypothetical aggregate net premiums (what 18062 calls “the target amount”) an insurer might receive for some plan in some state.  The y-axis shows the profits the insurer receives as a function of those aggregate net premiums assuming that claims (a/k/a “allowable costs”) are $11.4 million. The purple line shows what profits would have been as a function of premiums if 42 U.S.C. sec. 18062 did not exist. The blue line shows what profits will be after the payments required by 42 U.S.C. 18062 are taken into account.  The khaki-shaded zone shows the payments insurers are supposed to receive (and the Secretary of HHS supposed to pay) under the statute. The green zone shows the payments insurers are supposed to make (and the Secretary of HHS supposed to receive) under the statute.

Profit as a function of premiums before and after 42 USC 18062
Profit as a function of premiums before and after 42 USC 18062

We can create a similar graphic in which the role of claims and premiums is reversed. The x-axis of the graph shows hypothetical aggregate claims costs (what 18062 calls “the allowable costs”) an insurer might receive for some plan in some state.  The y-axis shows the profits the insurer receives as a function of those aggregate claims costs assuming that net premiums are $8.6 million. The purple line again shows what profits would have been as a function of premiums if 42 U.S.C. sec. 18062 did not exist. The blue line again shows what profits will be after the payments required by 42 U.S.C. 18062 are taken into account.  The khaki-shaded zone again shows the payments insurers are supposed to receive (and the Secretary of HHS supposed to pay) under the statute. The green zone again shows the payments insurers are supposed to make (and the Secretary of HHS supposed to receive) under the statute.

Insurers profits as a function of claims before and after 42 USC 18062
Insurers profits as a function of claims before and after 42 USC 18062

If one looks at the slope of the blue lines — the ones that show profits after 18062 risk corridors are taken into account — they are much less steep for most of the domain than the purple lines — the one that show profits before 18062 risk corridors are taken into account.  What this means is that, in some sense, it doesn’t matter to insurers all that much whether they price too low or too high, whether claims are lower than they thought or — due to adverse selection or otherwise — higher than they thought.  Either they are going to pay money to the government or they are going to get money from the government.  The risk of writing policies in the Exchange is greatly diminished.

In some sense, then, if section 18062 (1342) is fully implemented — an issue to which I will shortly return — insurers don’t act very much as profit-making enterprises within the Exchange making or losing money on the spread between premiums and claims.  (This is even more true after the corporate income tax is taken into account) Instead, they are almost fronting for the government, providing their license, their claims processing abilities and their credibility to a scheme in which the government really bears the risk associated with the new Exchange-based system of providing insurance.  A cynic might term the Exchanges as having gone 80% of the way towards a single payor system in which there is but minor variation in the benefits offered by insurance policies and claims processing contracted out to various insurance companies with the experience to do so.

The incentives issue

There are several implications of this consideration of 42 U.S.C. 18062. The first is to consider what incentives the system sets up for insurers.  My tentative belief is that it incentivizes insurers to offer a low premium if they want to go into the Exchanges and this statutory provision may explain in substantial part why insurers priced their policies at rates lower than most expected. Let me see if I can sketch out the argument.  If the insurer prices high, they are going to get very little business.  Other insurers will take their business away by going low.  If they price low, they will get a lot of the business.  Sure, they may lose money if they price too low, but, if so, the government will reimburse them for most of their losses.  And if they price right or still too high, they can make some money.

The graphic below illustrates this concept.  The x-axis shows possible premiums the insurer might charge. The y-axis shows the profit of the insurer associated with that profit.  As one can see, before section 18062, the insurer does best to charge about $2,840 in premiums; after 18062, the insurer does best to charge about $2,677 in premiums.  Although the assumptions chosen to produce this graphic were somewhat arbitrary, it is interesting and suggestive to me that the magnitude of the reduction in premiums is roughly similar to that observed in the actual market place in which premiums came in several hundred dollars below that originally projected.

Profit as a function of premiums in a competitive market before and after 42 USC 18062
Profit as a function of premiums in a competitive market before and after 42 USC 18062

The imbalance issue

There’s a second issue suggested by the two graphics above (the ones with the shading) showing the effect of premiums and claims on profitability.  They highlight that there is is no reason to think that the amount the Secretary receives will be equal to the amount the Secretary takes in.  That would be true only if insurers happen, in aggregate, to price the policies just right. If insurers have underpriced the policies because they expected a larger — and correlatively healthier — pool, the graphics may quite accurately reflect what occurs and the Secretary will be obligated to pay out far more than the Secretary takes in.  I have found no one who has written on this problem, no one who can explain where the money will come from to make the needed payments, or what mechanism will be used to reduce payments in the event, as I suspect, there will be an imbalance between the money collected and the money the Secretary is supposed to pay out.

 And one final thing

Extra credit: Can anyone spot the uncorrected typo in 42 U.S.C. 18062? For answer, look here.

Risk Adjustment Under 42 U.S.C. §18063

The transitional reinsurance and risk corridors provisions only last until 2016. After that, assuming the Affordable Care Act survives in something like its present form for that long, insurers are protected from adverse selection only by the  sleeping giant among the trio of protection measures: the “risk adjustment” provisions in ACA section 1343, codified at 42 U.S.C. §18063. The idea here is to equalize the playing field for insurers not based on the amount they actually pay out in claims (stop-loss reinsurance) or their actual profits (risk corridors) but on the risk they took in accepting insureds.  It thus envisions this massive bureaucratic scheme whereby each individual purchasing a policy on an Exchange is scored (based on a complex federal methodology involving “Hierarchical Condition Codes“) and then, the insurers with high scores get paid by the insurers with low scores with the Secretary of HHS figuring out exactly how it works. To do this, the Secretary will need masses of sensitive information, including fairly granular accounts of the medical conditions of each person enrolled on an Exchange.  The idea in the end, though, is to calm insurer fears that because of peculiarities of their plans, bad luck, or other factors, they tend up with a worse than average pool.

This provision will not save the Affordable Care Act from an adverse selection death spiral if enrollment stays low.  This is because Risk Adjustment simply protects insurers from worse-than-average draws from the pool of insureds purchasing Exchange policies.  It does nothing to protect insurers from having an overall pool of insureds purchasing Exchange policies that is higher risk than anticipated. If that larger pool is high risk on average, however, insurers will need to price their policies high, which will lead the lesser risk insureds to drop out, which will result in prices being raised again — the death spiral story.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line here is that two of the provisions (18061 and 18063) that purport to protect insurers from adverse selection really do little to protect insurers from the sort of adverse selection that is now appearing quite likely to develop: lower risk persons staying out of the Exchanges, period. The remaining provision, 18062, “Risk Corridors” in theory could give insurers some confidence that they will not lose their shirts if the pool stays small and high risk.  But this is only true to the extent that insurers believe the Secretary of HHS will find some currently unknown pot of money with which to make payments when the number of insurer losers in the Exchanges far outstrips the number of insurer winners. If insurers doubt that the Secretary will be able to find the money and may simply resort to some pro-rata reduction in payouts under 18062(b)(1), they will have be less pacified in what must be their growing fears that the pool of insureds inside the Exchanges will, on balance, be far higher risk than they anticipated. And, if the Secretary finds money with which to honor the promises in section 18062, look for protests from those who were told that the Affordable Care Act would not have all that large a price tag.

Late Breaking News

As it turns out, the reinsurance and risk adjustment provisions are in the news today in an elliptical remark made at the end of a letter sent by the Center for Consumer Information & Insurance Oversight (CCIIO) that implements President Obama’s transitional “fix” with respect to canceled nongroup policies. He states:

Though this transitional policy was not anticipated by health insurance issuers when setting rates for 2014, the risk corridor program should help ameliorate unanticipated changes in premium revenue. We intend to explore ways to modify the risk corridor program final rules to provide additional assistance.

I believe this passage amounts to recognition by the President that providing a non-Exchange insurance substitute for generally healthy people who otherwise likely would have gone into the Exchanges will end up making adverse selection worse and further increase likely losses by insurers writing in the Exchanges.  This, by the way, is why insurers are apparently furious about the President’s “fix.”  The question, though, is where is the money going to come from to make the insurer’s whole.  The statute appears to envision a zero sum game in which the winners compensate the losers.  It does not appear to contemplate what seems ever more likely to occur: a game in which the only winning move is not to play.

Acknowledgements

If you are interesting in this topic, you should read the articles by Professor Mark Hall. I don’t alway agree with Professor Hall, but I have tremendous respect for his analysis.  He is, in my view, one of the leading scholars with a generally positive view about the Affordable Care Act. You can find the articles here and here.

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